Hi Reader, Last week I said the whole week came down to Tuesday's CPI and Warsh. The number came in soft, Warsh stayed hawkish anyway, and then the war took over and made it pointless. The truce is dead, oil is back up, and the Fed is stuck. Let's get into it. Macro This Time We Blockaded the Coast The truce that held through early July is done. Monday Trump named the US the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz and put a 20% levy on everything moving through it. Tuesday the Navy went further and...
6 days ago • 7 min read
Hello Reader, You voted, and this letter is changing because of it. Last week I asked how many times you've actually traded off the Technical Charts section in the past 3 months. 59 (way less than I expected) of you answered. 75% said zero. 20% said 1 to 5 times. Only 5% said 5 to 10, and not a single person picked 10 or more. So 3 out of 4 readers who voted have never traded off that section, and that's before counting everyone who didn't vote at all. I told you last week these letters take...
13 days ago • 11 min read
Hello Reader, Real quick, I need one thing from you before we get to the market. Most of you know I run a business outside of TheTradingActuary, separate from the videos, the trading, all of it. Lately that business has been eating every hour I have. The section that takes me the longest to put together each week, by a mile, is Technical Charts. So I want an honest answer from you. Over the last 3 months, how many times have you traded using the Technical Charts section or made trades based...
20 days ago • 14 min read
Hello Reader, Told you I wasn't dropping my guard. Last week I said the deal was fragile and the Switzerland walkout was probably how the next two months would play out. The whole thing fell apart in less than ten days. A drone hit a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in Hormuz Thursday, the US hit back with airstrikes Friday, and Iran finished the weekend by launching ballistic missiles at our bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Oil is back up, futures are heavy, and Trump is on Truth Social threatening...
27 days ago • 17 min read
Hey Reader, Just landed back in LA today, so the letters are back on their normal schedule after a month of travel throwing me off. Good to be home. We've got a few big things to cover this week. Warsh ran his first Fed meeting and flipped the whole script, the cut is dead and a hike is now on the table. The Iran peace deal got signed Tuesday, almost blew up in Switzerland today, then got pulled back together by tonight. And the most expensive market in a hundred years keeps leaning on a...
about 1 month ago • 14 min read
Hello Reader, What a day. This morning Israel bombed Beirut and the Iran deal looked dead. Hours later Trump called the whole thing done, opened the Strait of Hormuz, and pulled the US naval blockade. The war's over, at least on paper, and futures gapped up over 2% the moment they opened. On Thursday Trump called off his strikes and said a deal was basically there. Then early Sunday June 14 Israel hit Hezbollah targets in Beirut, and for a few hours it looked like the whole thing might fall...
about 1 month ago • 16 min read
Hello Reader, Last week I called Friday's jobs report the real test. The market flunked it. For nine straight weeks the only direction was up. Records on the S&P, records on the Nasdaq, retail all-in on the AI trade. Then the May jobs report dropped Friday morning and the whole thing fell apart in a few hours. The S&P lost 2.64%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, and about $2 trillion in market cap just vanished. The chip index had its worst day since the 2020 crash and torched over $1 trillion by...
about 2 months ago • 10 min read
Ciao Reader, First off, thank you. The response to last week's letter was unreal. This community is what makes doing this worth it. And I'll let you in on something - I'm writing this one from Lake Como, Italy (more pics below). The market doesn't care that I'm staring at the Alps off the water, but I'm not complaining. Keeping this one short: the key stuff from last week, a few new names I'm watching, and an update on my trades, which have been absolutely killing it. Macro: Stagflation Is...
about 2 months ago • 7 min read
Hello Reader, Happy Memorial Day. US markets are closed today, so enjoy the day off. I am writing this one from abroad as I will be out of the country for over a month, but the newsletters will keep coming on schedule. You might also see some travel pics show up in future letters. Big plot twist over the weekend that I want to walk you through before Tuesday's open. Macro Trump Wants the Arab World to Join the Abraham Accords Sunday afternoon Trump posted a long letter on TRUTH Social calling...
2 months ago • 14 min read
Howdy Reader, Last week was stacked. New Fed Chair confirmed and sworn in. CPI ripped to a 3-year high. PPI was even worse. Trump flew to Beijing and met Xi. And the bond market finally broke. The U.S. 30-year hit a high of 5.160% on Friday, the highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. Let me walk you through it. Macro Warsh Confirmed. Bonds Broke. Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next Federal Reserve Chair on Tuesday, May 13, in a 54-45 Senate vote. He officially took...
2 months ago • 15 min read
